Smartphone shipments to surpass 390 mn units by 2013

By 2013, IDC forecasts that worldwide shipments of converged mobile devices, also known as smartphones, will surpass 390 million units, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.9% during 2009-2013. Underpinning the converged mobile device market is the constantly shifting mobile operating system (OS) landscape. In a market that was once dominated by a handful of pioneers, such as BlackBerry, Symbian, and Windows Mobile, newcomers touting open standards (Android) and intuitive design and navigation (Mac OS X and webOS) have garnered strong end-user and handset vendor interest.

Android will experience the fastest growth of any mobile operating system. Starting from a very small base of just 690,000 units in 2008, total Android-powered shipments will reach 68.0 million units by 2013, making for a CAGR of 150.4%. Android will benefit from having a growing footprint of handset vendors supporting it and will finish second to Symbian in shipments by 2013.

The company expects only Symbian OS based devices to outsell Android OS based device by 2013. Shipments of other Linux-powered devices, such as Palm's webOS are expected to slow down due to greater emphasis on the Android platform.

“Mobile operating systems have become the key ingredient in the highly competitive mobile device market. Although the overall look and feel of the device will still play an important role in the buying process, the wrong choice of operating system coupled with an awkward user interface can mean the difference between success and failure,” says Stephen D. Drake, vice president, Mobility and Telecom, IDC.

Last year a research report from IMS predicted that smartphone shipment growth is expected to accelerate in the future, with projected CAGR of 24.5% between 2010 and 2015. Much of this growth is forecast to come at the expense of the feature phone segment, as the average selling price for entry level smartphones approaches the same levels as high end feature phones.

IDC believes the choice of mobile operating system will become a major factor in determining which manufacturers have the strongest smartphone sales in coming years. With 3G networks having become prevalent all over the world, smartphones are no longer just for corporate users.

India is also witnessing a rapid growth in the smartphones segment. India shipped 4.8 lakh units of smartphones during Q3 CY2009. The top three smartphone vendors during Q3 of calender 2009 were Nokia, HTC and RIM. Together, these vendors had a share of nearly 90% of the Indian smartphones market in terms of unit shipments during the period July-September 2009. All the major handset makers like Nokia, HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung etc are focusing on smartphone market this year. Launch of 3G technology in the Indian market will further accelerate the growth of Smartphones.

With the number of smartphone users witnessing an upswing, prices are expected to see a phenomenal dip. Few months back ABI Research predicted that about 45% of smartphones shipped globally will cost less than Rs 10,000. The repost also said that Android could capture 10% of the smartphone market by 2014.

arpitap@cybermedia.co.in