ICEA debunks myths on smartphone export decline

The India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), India’s leading industry body representing mobile phone, electronics, and semiconductor manufacturing, regularly releases production and export data that closely aligns with official government statistics, particularly in the smartphone segment.

 Recently, however, some commentary in the public domain has led to misleading conclusions regarding smartphone exports, largely due to selective use of data without the necessary context. ICEA believes it is important to correct the record and present the facts accurately.

In analysing trade data, it is standard and prudent practice to compare figures across equivalent periods in different financial years. Drawing conclusions from month-to-month comparisons within a single fiscal year, especially in a sector with unique seasonal and structural trends, can result in highly inaccurate interpretations. Unfortunately, such flawed comparisons have given rise to misrepresentations that do not reflect the true performance of the sector.

Facts on smartphone exports – August and September 2025 

Contrary to claims suggesting a decline, India’s smartphone exports have seen a significant surge. Exports to the United States saw an even more pronounced rise, growing by 148%, from USD 388 million in August 2024 to USD 965 million in August 2025.

Looking at the broader picture, in the first five months of FY26, smartphone exports to the US reached USD 8.43 billion, a 193% increase over the USD 2.88 billion recorded during the same period in FY25. This figure already accounts for nearly 80% of the total US smartphone exports for the entire previous fiscal year, which stood at USD 10.56 billion.

Overall, the first five months of FY26 marked a record-breaking period for smartphone exports from India. Total exports reached ₹1 lakh crore, or approximately USD 11.7 billion, a 55% rise from USD 7.6 billion during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. These numbers underscore a strong upward trend, rather than any decline, in exports, particularly to the US, both in the month of August and across the April to August period.

ICEA Chairman Mr Pankaj Mohindroo emphasised that each export sector operates within its own set of dynamics influenced by multiple factors. He stated, “Every export sector has its own dynamics, influenced by various factors. Oversimplification of trade data, particularly monthly comparisons, is misleading and avoidable. It’s vital that sector-specific conclusions are informed by subject matter experts.”

August–September: Typically low export months 

The months of August and early September are historically among the lowest periods for smartphone exports, a trend that can be explained by the industry’s operational and market cycles. During this time, global customers typically hold off on purchases in anticipation of new model launches, which usually occur in late September and October to coincide with the festive season. This delay in buying behaviour affects not only new models but also older ones, as customers expect discounts to be offered following new launches. Consequently, demand and exports drop temporarily.

In addition to market behaviour, manufacturers often use this period to retrofit their plants and upgrade machinery in preparation for new product launches. This planned reduction in output naturally leads to lower export volumes.

Furthermore, in the lead-up to major Indian festivals such as Diwali, companies often prioritise the domestic market to meet seasonal demand. This shift in focus results in a short-term dip in exports through September and early October. However, exports typically rebound strongly post-Diwali, driven by international demand associated with the Western holiday season, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year.

A sector on the rise 

Over the last five years, smartphones have emerged as India’s best-performing export sector. Since the introduction of the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, the sector has risen from being the country’s 167th largest export in FY15 to becoming India’s top export by Harmonised System (HS) code by FY25. This dramatic shift reflects the sector’s rapid growth and strategic importance.

ICEA reiterated that India’s electronics manufacturing sector stands at a major inflection point. This transformation is being powered by key government initiatives such as the PLI scheme, the development of electronics manufacturing clusters, and ongoing efforts to rationalise tariffs and address cost-related challenges. These measures, coupled with increasing global trust and favourable geopolitical shifts, are helping to position India as a global hub for electronics and smartphone manufacturing.