The UPA is back in action with Indians giving a thumbs up to another round of
coalition government. The Congress party will be under pressure to offer the
much sought after Ministry of Communications and IT to its allies. Whoever is
the telecom minister, he/she should be able to take appropriate decisions
involving all stakeholders. Past ministers' performance evoked mixed response
from the industry due to lack of transparency in their decision making. The new
telecom ministry will face a huge task of maintaining telecom growth at a time
when operators are looking for additional spectrum to stay afloat. The main
focus areas for the ministry should be solving issues relating to 3G, WiMax,
additional spectrum allocation, NGN, VoIP, measures to improve rural telephony,
local manufacturing, among other things. In the next two-three years, the Indian
telecom market will see too much action. Most of the prominent service providers
are looking at entering into 3G and WiMax space. Though 3G may not be the major
driving factor for the next level of revenue growth, everyone will be pitching
for 3G to further enhance subscriber-base and grab spectrum. Broadband based on
WiMax platform will be the much sought after service among enterprises. India
has already delayed spectrum auction for 3G and WiMax. Should we wait for LTE?
The LTE buzz is emerging in some of the mature telecom markets, though its
commercial launch is expected after one or two years. The new telecom ministry
should keep an eye on LTE spectrum when they decide on 3G and WiMax spectrum
auction. Our short term policies have forced us to go slow for new technologies.
If the telecom regulator and the government can plan spectrum size for LTE, it
will help operators plan their financial outlay for future projects. I am
suggesting that operators should keep investments for LTE because of a number of
compelling factors. The number of global LTE subscriptions will grow at a CAGR
of 404% from 2010 to 2014, faster than any previous mobile standards including
3G. LTE user base will touch 136 mn by 2014, according to Pyramid Research. LTE
is claimed to be more efficient as it is using cost-effective flat IP
architecture. Twenty-seven mobile operators worldwide have already decided to
deploy LTE, with twelve expected to rollout commercial services in 2010 and the
remainder during 2011 and 2012. While it took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to
reach 100 mn subscriptions, according to Pyramid, LTE will take just over four
years to reach the same milestone. Majority of LTE users in the early stage will
come from developed markets, including the US and Japan, where most of the first
LTE deployments will occur. India has reasons to cheer, as LTE will grow 30%
faster in emerging markets than in developed markets. Subscribers in emerging
markets will account for 43% of the LTE total in 2014, up from 5% in 2010.
Indian operators must plan now for LTE. The new government should assist
stakeholders to achieve better economies of scale and bottom line.
Baburajan K
baburajank@cybermedia.co.in