Strong iPhone demand lifts Apple ahead of rivals in 2025

In 2025, Apple emerged as the largest smartphone brand globally by shipment share, according to Counterpoint Research. Worldwide smartphone shipments grew by a modest 2% year-on-year during the period, but Apple accounted for the biggest slice of the market at around 20%. This performance was driven by strong demand for the newly launched iPhone 17 series and rising interest in iPhones across developing markets, including India. Samsung followed closely with a little over 19% of shipments, while Xiaomi ranked third with a 13% share.

Apple’s momentum and near-term outlook

Apple’s leadership in global shipments points to solid momentum going into the next product cycle. The success of the iPhone 17 series has fuelled replacement demand, allowing Apple to grow faster than the overall market. In a largely mature smartphone industry, this suggests Apple is gaining share rather than merely riding broader market expansion.

In the coming months, this position is likely to support stable shipment volumes and preserve pricing power, even as the industry faces rising component costs. Apple’s premium-focused portfolio leaves it less exposed to price-sensitive segments, enabling it to absorb cost pressures more effectively than many Android competitors.

India’s role and the impact of supply constraints

India is becoming an increasingly important growth market for Apple. Expanding local manufacturing, a wider retail footprint and easier access to financing are helping the company reach a broader consumer base. These factors should underpin demand in the months ahead, particularly around festive and promotional periods, despite subdued overall market growth.

However, the wider smartphone industry is expected to face headwinds in 2026. Persistent chip shortages and component supply constraints are likely to slow shipments, as semiconductor manufacturers divert capacity towards higher-margin AI data centre chips. Some brands, including Samsung and Nothing, have already raised handset prices in response to rising costs.

In India, where most volumes sit in the sub-Rs 20,000 segment, limited chipset availability could hit mid-range and budget devices hardest. This may lead to delayed launches, fewer model options or a shift towards higher-priced smartphones that can better absorb cost increases. While larger players with strong supply arrangements may cope better, smaller brands could come under pressure, and consumers may see slower price corrections and continued upward pressure on smartphone prices through 2026.