India’s epic voyage to 6G through 2G to 5G

With the Bharat 6G Vision Document, India is ready for setting the pace globally in the realm of a new generation of mobile technology

Having convincingly demonstrated the ability to develop and produce India Stacks for 4G and 5G, and having achieved the fastest rollout of 5G globally (both service providers reaching 3,000 cities and towns by 27th April 2023), India has raised full power for moving at top speed towards 6G R&D, standards and manufacturing.

With the launch of the Bharat 6G Vision document by the Prime Minister on 23rd March 2023, India has displayed foresight and started serious R&D preparation for a technology that is 7 to 10 years ahead. What this means is that, unlike technologies from 2G to 5G, where the country has been a mere adopter and user, in the case of 6G, India is aiming at “setting the future before it gets set” and is endeavouring to “find a high seat at the table of suppliers of gear and solutions”.

It is common knowledge that, in the early years, standards of new technologies get developed and set and that is what decides the players who will dominate the manufacturing as the technology starts to roll out. India is now all set to capture that prime spot.

The story of the Gs

By far, 2G or GSM has undoubtedly been the most successful of the technologies since it is still used by a significant fraction of the population. In India, judging by the number of feature phones still going strong in the market, it is estimated that 2G and 3G are still being used by about 300 to 350 million users, of which the predominant fraction is on 2G, mostly in rural and remote areas, and possibly only about 100 million on 3G.

The concerned operators are not having any plans yet for shutting down 2G. Hence, it is expected that 2G would continue for at least a couple of years more which would still mean over 30 years of a successful run in India, giving good returns to the operators while still delivering benefits to the consumers.

"For India to meet full success in the great initiative, as Alexander Pope would have advised, we must first drink deep of the Pierian springs of 4G and 5G."

4G can be reckoned to be a very close rival to 2G in its display of success till now. It entered India rather quietly in 2016 but with outstanding success as India’s first taste of reasonable quality mobile broadband, made available to consumers at extremely affordable rates. The runaway success of 4G has been achieved without any fanfare or heavy promotion and merely on the back of quality levels delivered. This is in contrast to 3G which was probably over-hyped before commercialisation and failed to live up to the high expectations built up.

Progressing from 4G, it is noted that 5G is not an incremental technology but a big technological leap. Six months since the launch of 5G in India, it is worthwhile to pause and evaluate whether the country has extracted at least a major chunk of the possible benefit from the 4G technology. To do this, it would be useful to consider the evolution of communication from 2G to 5G, through the various 3GPP Releases, in respect of key parameters, as given in the table Evolution of Communication from 2G to 5G.

4G has also necessitated huge investment but seems to be set for a long good run. Even a cursory glance at the above table of properties, as well as the latest actual speed-test results given below, indicate that there is surely a need to extract much more out of 4G in India. This is extremely important also for the reason that our telecom operators need to get a reasonable return for their large investments.

Successful 4G countries have adequately deployed critical supporting technologies like Optic Fiber Cable (OFC) and Wi-Fi to leverage the full potential of 4G. For example, it is well known that about 60% to 80% of towers have to be fibreised to effectively support 4G. However, in India, we are still struggling with only around 35% tower fibreisation. This affects the quality (speed of download and upload) of the 4G delivered to the users. Similar is the effect of supporting Wi-Fi technology.

India has only about five lakh public Wi-Fi hotspots which are less than 5% of the global norms. It may be noted that National Digital Communications Policy 2018 had set a target of 10 million public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2022 and this has been heavily underscored by the country’s 6G Vision Document which calls for 50 million public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2030. And, it is not merely the inadequate availability but also the lack of modern versions of Wi-Fi technology.

An Indian manufacturer, HFCL, has successfully developed and is exporting a large number of the most advanced Wi-Fi popularly referred to as WiFi 7, which is a virtual match for 5G in terms of capabilities. However, in India itself, we are not even using WiFi 6 or WiFi 6E which are powerful versions that can handle today’s data-rich and sophisticated applications with 4G, delivering vastly superior user experience.

It should be appreciated that with the improvements possible in 4G of higher speeds in line with global norms, superior customer experience is ensured and there would be no compromise for the user vis-a-vis his or her experience with 5G. After all, the common retail market customer is hardly looking for ultra-low latency or ultra-high bandwidth and speed. Most users would find it difficult to discriminate experience between, say, a 50 Mbps with 4G and a 5G speed of 200-300 Mbps. It is only the niche segment of highly sophisticated professional users or the category of enterprise users who will need to urgently adopt 5G service.

This is the first time that India is ready for setting the pace globally in the realm of a new generation of mobile technology, the 6G.

It is not that we should slow down on 5G or delay its rollout. On the contrary, the adoption of 5G by the concerned segments should be pushed to the maximum. However, it would be vastly beneficial both to operators as well as customers if concurrently 4G is strengthened and improved in quality.

As mentioned earlier, OFC rollout and tower fibreisation should be doubled or trebled. Wi-Fi hotspots need to be rolled out to 50 million numbers as indicated in the 6G Vision Document. For remote and difficult-to-reach regions and locations, 4G and 5G satellites, the Non-Terrestrial Networks should be deployed. All these technologies and solutions are ripe, mature and available.

India is not using WiFi 6 or WiFi 6E that can handle today’s data-rich and sophisticated applications with 4G, to deliver a vastly superior user experience.

While India can truly pride itself on its extremely fast rollout of 5G, at the same time, it must be appreciated that, due to the vast geography and the huge and dispersed population, we have, as yet, probably covered only a small fraction of the market. This can be appreciated when we note the distribution of the base stations (see box Distribution of Base Stations).

It is, therefore, clear from the above that the 5G coverage would be less than 10% of what we have with 4G. Of course, this would be a rough estimate since there are differences in spectrum bands, efficiency characteristics, etc. However, it is given to indicate that we have quite a long haul ahead for 5G to catch up with 4G although even the latter has not reached complete rural coverage and adoption.

There are, of course, some naysayers who tend to deflate the enthusiasts by pointing to the billions of dollars invested in 5G with inadequate impact on telcos sales or profits. However, history has shown time and again that development or progress cannot be retarded or stopped for long. Inexorably, consumer interest and excitement would prevail. Moreover, the much higher efficiency of 5G is not in doubt and has helped significantly to control operating costs. Finally, the critical role of private 5G in taking enterprises to Industry 4.0 is indisputable.

Beginning of the 6G story

Given the above, while 4G and 5G are racing ahead, it is worthwhile to start doing some crystal ball gazing about 6G. The highest priority is to be involved in and contribute to the development of global 6G standards. It is encouraging to note that serious work has already commenced in the concerned ministries and departments. As pointed out by NG Subramaniam, Chair – TSDSI and Chair, PCG Committee of 3GPP global apex body for 5G and 6G, and ED and COO of TCS, “Imagining 6G is not about speed or latency but experience. It is about going beyond the obvious and visualising an entwined future of digital twins of people, assets, processes, and systems coming together at scale.”

It would be about an immersive experience where the physical and the digital worlds merge and become indistinguishable whole. Also, as predicted by Dr RK Upadhyay, CEO, C-DoT, “... by 2030, society’s demands would have increased considerably. With data-hungry applications in all verticals, billions of connected devices with latency requirements better than one millisecond, and zettabytes of digital information getting generated, the limits of the 5G network would have already been reached. Seamless tactile Internet with intelligent ubiquitous coverage extending the sky, the sea and the space, will be available with the integration of terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks.”

After its entry into mobile telecommunications with GSM 2G in 1995, this is the first time that India is ready for setting the pace globally in the realm of a new generation of mobile technology, the 6G. However, for India to meet with full success in this great initiative, as Alexander Pope would have advised, we must first drink deep of the Pierian springs of 4G and 5G.

TV Ramachandran

TVR is Hon. FIET (London) and President of Broadband India Forum.

Views are personal.

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