Future of Telecom-It's all about innovation!

In 1878, a Western Union memo read: “This has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is of no value to us”. Hundred years later in 1977, Ken Olsen, the founder and chairman, Digital Equipment Corporation is claimed to have said, “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”.

These 2 'predictions' on the future of technology 100 years apart clearly show how tricky it can be to foresee the future. Here, in India, even in 2003 no one would have been able to guess that by 2009, on an average, 8 mn people would be added each month to the mobile subscribers' list. Commenting on the future of a rapidly changing technology like telecommunications is therefore at best a hazardous task and at worst, may be injurious to your reputation and business. Unfortunately, however, it is also a fatal attraction and somewhat necessary in order to build lasting businesses.

Keeping this caution in mind and based on an understanding of the past, I can make 4 specific comments on the future of telecom in India:

First, all future innovations would be based on data services. Very few people are aware that on an average a mobile user uses his device for about 6 hours a day, out of which only 1 hour is spent on talking! A large part of the remaining 5 hours can be converted to data use time. With the coming of 3G and emergence of the data market, we would see many useful services that will encourage mass adoption. Several examples are already visible eg the 'Live Aarti' service by Spice Digital and Aircel's mobile education service. Mobile advertising (not SMS shower) is another area waiting to happen calling on mobile companies to act more like media mughals. Given the internal migration and movements, even a simple service like video call can prove to be a major innovation driving growth. Video call is an interesting innovation for the Indian market, because it converts the plain vanilla call to a data service!

While on the subject of data on mobile, it would be interesting to see how governance itself moves to mobile. The ambitious mobile governance project of the government coupled with the planned Electronic Services Delivery Act, Aahaar are set to create an environment of innovation in applications and data services heretofore unknown in India.

The second important trend in innovation, which would not be visible to the consumer, would be the optimization of resources, especially spectrum. High cost of spectrum, creating and maintaining networks, management of vendors, management and low paying customers will 'force' many breakthrough business process technologies in this area to drive cost efficiencies. The day is not far when most telecom operators will become just brands and license owners, all else being left to partners.

The third important innovation in the very near future would be around cost which will be driven by intense competition. When Google announced unlimited space for Gmail. It had only a few lakh email accounts and that too only through invitation. The choice before the competitor was limited, say Yahoo! with 250 mn plus email accounts either to offer the same facility to all its users at a huge cost or lose customers to Google. Now, imagine a similar scenario with voice calls and you will see that the days of free voice calls are not too far. It may soon be a reality that for the first time in the world an Indian operator will allow free voice calls to select customers.

The demands of a competitive market will mean that most other operators will have to follow suit. The days of free voice calls may be nearer than we think! It may soon be a reality that for the first time in the world an operator in India will allow free voice calls to select customers.

The fourth critical innovation would happen around what is loosely termed as mobile money. Soon you would be able to use your mobile as a credit or debit card and not just to maintain bank accounts. How about using mobile units to buy a laptop by transferring units to the sellers' mobile phone!

Finally, what will make these innovations happen are innovative policies. It would be interesting to see how much innovation is brought into the telecom policy making in the next 3 years so that business innovations are possible.