5G in India: Market Expansion, consumer adoption, and competitive shifts

The Indian telecommunications industry witnessed a series of significant developments in 2024, including the long-anticipated price hike, the rollout of the 5G network, and the final establishment of differential pricing for 5G. With Vodafone Idea and BSNL’s 5G networks expected to launch in 2025, the 5G ecosystem will continue to expand. Additionally, the two market leaders, Airtel and Reliance Jio, will persist in broadening the coverage and capacity of their 5G networks.

According to the latest research from Nokia, the number of 5G subscribers in India is projected to rise from 290 million in 2024 to 770 million by 2028, driven by the expansion of the newest wireless broadband networks and the increasing adoption of 5G-enabled smartphones. As 5G adoption has grown, the average monthly 5G data usage per user in India reached 40GB as of December 2024.

State-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) and Vodafone Idea, India’s third-largest service provider, are anticipated to introduce 5G services this year. Vodafone Idea plans to launch 5G services this month and had already awarded contracts to Ericsson and Nokia last year. Meanwhile, BSNL has completed testing its 5G core network and radio access network (RAN) in the 700MHz and 3.6GHz bands and aims to start offering 5G services by mid-2025.

Union Minister of Communications and the minister of Development of North Eastern Region , Jyotiraditya Scindia, recently stated, "We want all 100,000 sites to be up and running by May or June 2025. After this, we'll switch from 4G to 5G, perhaps beginning in June. Together with the decline in smartphone prices, the introduction of 5G services by BSNL and Vodafone Idea is expected to intensify competition and make 5G more widely accessible.

In its 12th edition of the India Mobile Broadband Index (MBiT) 2025 survey, Nokia predicted that the annual increase in 5G customers would reach 120 million. The report provides insights into how 6G will shape future communications and highlights the significance of "5G Advanced" in unlocking the full potential of 5G technology.

The surge in 5G data consumption and subscriber growth has already begun to impact the quality of 5G services in the country. As competition heightens with the anticipated rollout of BSNL’s 5G network and Vodafone Idea’s services, the two leading telecom companies, Airtel and Jio, will focus on expansion.

According to Nokia’s report, the average monthly mobile data consumption per user increased to 27.5 gigabytes (GB) in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% over the past five years. As of December, the average monthly data usage per user was 13.5GB in 2020, 17GB in 2021, 19.5GB in 2022, and 24.1GB in 2023.

Moreover, fixed wireless access (FWA) is experiencing robust growth, prompting both Jio and Airtel to focus on this segment to maximise returns on their 5G investments. According to capital markets and investment organisation CLSA, Reliance Jio’s total number of home broadband users increased to 17 million as of the third quarter (October–December) of FY25, thanks to 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). This figure is 90% higher than Bharti Airtel’s 9.2 million customers. In an analyst note, Airtel announced that it had extended 5G FWA coverage to 2,000 cities in India.

The two telecom giants collectively hold 60% of the residential broadband market. 5G FWA has played a crucial role in the sector’s growth, attracting customers with Jio AirFiber and Airtel Xstream AirFiber.

However, as the issue of spectrum allocation for enterprises remains unresolved, the expansion of 5G private networks is expected to remain slow. Businesses continue to push for administrative spectrum allocation for 5G private networks, while telecom operators advocate for a spectrum auction.