Death of SMS?

Experts gazing in the crystal ball of mobile usage in the country believe that SMS is not just likely to come down dramatically in the time to come but may stop altogether. This is mainly because it would be more economical to send an email via mobile internet instead of sending an SMS.

“Typically, the data plans currently on offer charge 10 paise for 10 kb. So an email of say 100 bytes would cost 0.1 paise as compared with an SMS of around 100 characters which normally costs Rs 1,” explains Vinay Goel, head of products, Google India.

There were around 3-5 million data plan users in the country about two years back, but thanks to the surge in the last year, the number has gone up to 20 million now. This is further likely to increase in the times to come.

India is one of the few countries which records a high SMS traffic. According to TRAI data, an average Indian sends 29 SMS per month. It is used not just to keep in touch with friends and family, bit to check mobile bills, book train tickets etc.

However, going forward, India will also follow the trend prevalent in the developed countries of high data traffic and low or negligible SMS traffic. As of now, the usage patterns of web on mobile are similar to that on the PC, according to Goel.

New Dimensions

Social networking is used very heavily by the mobile web users. Going ahead, video is also likely to become popular like in other developed countries which experience a high data usage and low SMS usage.

Data usage plans launched recently by the operators are already heralding this change. For instance, Aircel recently launched data plan for Rs 95 per month. A similar plan has also been launched by Vodafone in Chennai. The popularity of these plans point to the fact that there is a latent demand for data usage in the country and the only issue is price point.

However, with 3G likely to be a reality soon and all the operators vying for the larger share of the market, the prices are going to come down and with an increase in the mobile internet usage there is going to be a data explosion.

This also consequently implies that the operators are likely to see a drop in their revenue from SMS business, which hopefully will be compensated by an increase in the volume of data usage in the country.

While Google was earlier conservative about emerging data usage patterns in the country, this is no longer the case. The company has initially focused on SMS related products like SMS search and SMS Alerts.

However, the scenario is quiet different now. Google is now quite gung-ho about the emerging data usage patterns in the country and is planning to launch a number of products to garner the maximum share of this emerging market. The company recently launched `Latitude', which basically allows the user to share his/her location with others. Voice search is another application recently launched by the company.

The main growth drivers of data explosion in the last one year has been a huge reduction in the cost of smartphone in the country. While earlier smartphone were available in the range of Rs 30,000 and upwards, this has come down to Rs 10,000 and upwards. Besides, many operators in a bid to increase their revenue from data have started offering innovative and inviting plans.

As of now the SMS usage continues to rise in the country and it remains to be seen whether mobile internet will replace the service. However, it is certain that the segment is likely to experience some thrilling action with the consumer laughing all the way.

gagandeepk@cybermedia.co.in