In spite of the global economic slowdown in general-and IT in particular-one
area that has kept moving is broadband connectivity. Broadband lines touched
100.8 million globally in 2003, compared to 62 million in 2002 (Point Topic's,
UK). USA is the world's leading broadband country with 25.1 million lines,
followed by Japan (13.6 million), China (13.5 million), South Korea (11.1
million), and Canada (4.7 million). India is also waking up to the need and
potential of broadband-but slowly. As per the broadband policy released
recently, India has two broadband users for every 10,000 people (0.02 percent).
On the other hand, the potential for development is immense. The broadband
policy envisages 20 million users by 2010. Other more conservative studies put
the number at 10 million broadband subscribers in the same time frame.
The broadband policy has kept in mind the need for accelerating the broadband
penetration in the country. Although local loop unbundling has not been allowed-and
there is substantial debate on this-a few positives of the policy are:
Access service providers can enter into commercial agreements with MTNL/BSNL
for utilization of the existing copper loop
- Impetus to fiber optic technology to support unlimited bandwidth potential
- Cable brought into the framework, cable TV networks can be used as
franchisee networks of the service provider for provisioning broadband
services - De-licensing of 2.40—2.48 GHz band for low-power, outdoor use on
non-protection, non-interference, and non-exclusive basis - The 5.15—5.35 GHz band shall be de-licensed for indoor use, to
accelerate penetration of broadband and Internet Simplification of SACFA/WPC (Standing Advisory Committee
on Radio Frequency Allocation /the Wireless Planning and Coordination Wing)
clearance
But there are questions beyond the regulatory framework that
need to be addressed. The first one is of definitions. The definition that the
broadband policy has chosen is an 'always on' connection which can provide
Internet access at speeds of at least 256 kbps, so that it can facilitate
interactive applications. Is this broadband today? Will this constitute
broadband six year down the line? Doubtful. As the applications become more
complex these speeds would not be enough for interactivity. In fact, even today
256 kbps systems give far lower throughput and hence are not really suitable for
high-traffic applications.
Second is the question of absolute numbers and relative
numbers. Even if the stated 20 million is reached it would still mean two
percent penetration at current population levels. That hardly constitutes a
broadband country, considering that Korea today has reached something like 25
percent broadband connectivity!
Third is the question of penetration determinants. To make
any country broadband rich, the main determinants would be: making broadband a
low cost item of mass consumption, encouraging initial telecom infrastructure
capex, bringing together people/markets/goods using broadband for organized
e-trade, and most important, selection of prime movers/applications.
Momentum in most countries has come on the back of relevant
applications. Growth happened because of the popularity of multi-player games.
Also, there was a tremendous emphasis on education that encouraged families to
see broadband as a meaningful investment. Today, South Korea has the highest
broadband penetration in the world (23.17 per 100 persons in December 2003). In
January 2004, the Internet users in Korea reached 28.6 million. Even the USA did
not have the same level of success due to absence of a mass applications. Japan
grew on the back of VoIP applications.
In this context, the Indian plans look not at all ambitious.
The applications necessary for growth are not even being thought about. The
assumption that sufficient deregulation will drive this is not always true.
There is every likelihood that we will be playing the broadband catch up game
for a long time. If we don't want to do that we simply have to set the sights
higher and have a much sharper vision.
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COMMENT: Broadening the Band
In spite of the global economic slowdown in general-and IT in particular-one
area that has kept moving is broadband connectivity. Broadband lines touched
100.8 million globally in 2003, compared to 62 million in 2002 (Point Topic's,
UK). USA is the world's leading broadband country with 25.1 million lines,
followed by Japan (13.6 million), China (13.5 million), South Korea (11.1
million), and Canada (4.7 million). India is also waking up to the need and
potential of broadband-but slowly. As per the broadband policy released
recently, India has two broadband users for every 10,000 people (0.02 percent).
On the other hand, the potential for development is immense. The broadband
policy envisages 20 million users by 2010. Other more conservative studies put
the number at 10 million broadband subscribers in the same time frame.
editor-in-chief VOICE&DATA
The broadband policy has kept in mind the need for accelerating the broadband
penetration in the country. Although local loop unbundling has not been allowed-and
there is substantial debate on this-a few positives of the policy are:
Access service providers can enter into commercial agreements with MTNL/BSNL
for utilization of the existing copper loop
franchisee networks of the service provider for provisioning broadband
services
non-protection, non-interference, and non-exclusive basis
accelerate penetration of broadband and Internet
Simplification of SACFA/WPC (Standing Advisory Committee
on Radio Frequency Allocation /the Wireless Planning and Coordination Wing)
clearance
But there are questions beyond the regulatory framework that
need to be addressed. The first one is of definitions. The definition that the
broadband policy has chosen is an 'always on' connection which can provide
Internet access at speeds of at least 256 kbps, so that it can facilitate
interactive applications. Is this broadband today? Will this constitute
broadband six year down the line? Doubtful. As the applications become more
complex these speeds would not be enough for interactivity. In fact, even today
256 kbps systems give far lower throughput and hence are not really suitable for
high-traffic applications.
Second is the question of absolute numbers and relative
numbers. Even if the stated 20 million is reached it would still mean two
percent penetration at current population levels. That hardly constitutes a
broadband country, considering that Korea today has reached something like 25
percent broadband connectivity!
Third is the question of penetration determinants. To make
any country broadband rich, the main determinants would be: making broadband a
low cost item of mass consumption, encouraging initial telecom infrastructure
capex, bringing together people/markets/goods using broadband for organized
e-trade, and most important, selection of prime movers/applications.
Momentum in most countries has come on the back of relevant
applications. Growth happened because of the popularity of multi-player games.
Also, there was a tremendous emphasis on education that encouraged families to
see broadband as a meaningful investment. Today, South Korea has the highest
broadband penetration in the world (23.17 per 100 persons in December 2003). In
January 2004, the Internet users in Korea reached 28.6 million. Even the USA did
not have the same level of success due to absence of a mass applications. Japan
grew on the back of VoIP applications.
In this context, the Indian plans look not at all ambitious.
The applications necessary for growth are not even being thought about. The
assumption that sufficient deregulation will drive this is not always true.
There is every likelihood that we will be playing the broadband catch up game
for a long time. If we don't want to do that we simply have to set the sights
higher and have a much sharper vision.