A Moonshot for India

As India is paving its way for next-generation 5G connectivity, here is a peek at the milestones it has crossed and the challenges that remain.

When you aim for the moon (literally), you do three things. One, coral resources and expertise that would, otherwise, lie latent. Two, get an edge over other countries even if you fail some initial attempts. And three, in hurling a man or a rocket at the moon, you stretch your limits of infrastructure, talent, skills, and disruption- to the hilt.

So, when Ericsson chief Borje Ekholm said recently that India’s 5G rollout is the fastest globally, and that by the end of 2023, the country will be ahead of others, he might be on to something. And his gaze is not an exception but concurs with what many other lenses have witnessed.

India’s ambitious 5G path seems nothing short of a space mission. More so, as it is a race that will matter on a global firmament.

FIREWORKS AND PROJECTILES

As per the Nokia Mobile Broadband Index report, mobile data traffic in India jumped 3.2x in the last five years, hitting over 14 exabytes per month. Interestingly, mobile data consumption increases are coinciding with the launch of commercial 5G services in the country in October 202. This is because Communication Service Providers are on a good pace to deploy 5G networks and expand to newer areas at a fast pace. More than 70 million 5G devices are estimated to have been shipped to India in 2022. This confirms strong traction for 5G in the market.

This direction is echoed in the findings of CyberMedia Research Mobile Handset Market Review Report for CY2022 as well, which indicates that India’s 5G smartphone momentum continued through CY2022. The share of 5G smartphone shipments increased to 31% in 2022, registering an overall growth of 74% over the previous year. As many as USD 20 Billion value of 5G Smartphones were shipped in 2022.

“The government is leading the way in digitally transforming the nation, from smooth spectrum allocation to investing in last-mile accessibility to 4G and 5G services across the nation.”- Anand Bhaskar Managing Director, Service Provider Business Cisco India & SAARC

“Launching the 200 thousandth 5G site at Gangotri and installing sites across 700 districts within eight months showcases India as one of the fastest 5G rollouts globally.”- Vinay Tamboli, Senior VP – Digital Analytics and Consulting Business, LS Digital

As per the June 2023 Ericsson Mobility report, 5G mobile subscriptions are growing in every region and could top 1.5 billion globally by the end of 2023. It points out that following the launch of 5G services in October 2022, the major 5G Indian market is witnessing huge network deployments under its Digital India initiative. 5G subscriptions in India touched about 10 million by the end of 2022 and are estimated to account for about 57% of mobile subscriptions in the country by the end of 2028. This could make it the fastest-growing 5G region globally.

The report also found a strong link between the increase in 5G subscriptions and service revenue. Over the past two years, the introduction of 5G services in the top twenty markets led to a seven percent revenue boost.

The Nokia report also pointed out that India is poised for accelerated private network deployments in enterprises, driven by 5G. Enterprise spending on Private 5G networks will be driven by new use cases in diverse industry verticals, including manufacturing, utilities, transportation, and healthcare, among others, in India. India’s investment in private wireless networks is expected to reach around USD 250 million by 2027.

Consider what an OpenSignal analysis also unlocked. While it is almost over four years since 5G first launched in South Korea and the US, and the experience is continuing to mature, India – with its very recent launch of 5G – has already demonstrated a marked improvement on 4G. The latest global 5G benchmark indicates that average 5G speed is several times faster than 4G and there is a significant uplift in the mobile video streaming and gaming experience. The average 5G download speeds are over 10 times as fast as 4G speeds in six markets and India with 19.2x levels is at a pretty good spot here, followed by Malaysia (14.4x), Sri Lanka (13.8x), Brazil (13.5x), Kuwait (10.8x) and Guatemala (10.4x).

When 5G kicks in with those breakneck speed levels and low latency advantages, there is no limit to the use cases that can transpire, from ultra-fast Internet-equipped education campuses to predictive maintenance-savvy factories, and smart farming to lightning-fast governance in cities and villages.

But are we there yet? If not, what’s standing between this dream and the moon?

GETTING THE OIL CHECK DONE

India’s progress in rolling out 5G has been remarkable, with the rapid expansion of connectivity through multiple government initiatives across all states and union territories, affirms Vinay Tamboli, Senior VP – Digital Analytics and Consulting Business, LS Digital. “Launching the 200 thousandth 5G site at Gangotri and installing sites across 700 districts within eight months showcases one of the fastest 5G rollouts globally. Infrastructure development, including fibre optic networks and tower installations, is being accelerated to support the increased bandwidth requirements of 5G.”

There is no doubt that India is amongst the fastest-growing economies and mobile service markets, reckons Gaurav Sahay, Partner, SNG and Partners. “The development of 5G can play an important role in India’s inclusion milestones, like bringing broadband to rural and remote homes. Trials have proved the potential 5G can offer, and can bridge the digital divide by enabling access to high-speed broadband.”

India’s 5G rollout is being hailed as the fastest globally, and by the end of 2023, we might be ahead of other countries, chimes in Anand Bhaskar – Managing Director, Service Provider Business Cisco India and SAARC. “Undoubtedly, the government is leading the way in digitally transforming the nation from the focus on digitising critical services and sectors, offering a smooth spectrum allocation to investing in last-mile accessibility to 4G and 5G services across the nation.”

“The development of 5G can help India provide broadband to rural and remote homes and trials have proved the potential of 5G in bridging the digital divide.”- Gaurav Sahay

Giving a drill-down of the progress, Sourav Gupta, Telecom Analyst, Omdia captures key players and head-ways. “As of now, the 5G network has been rolled out by the nation’s two major players Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Jio is deploying the network based on the standalone mode using the 700MHz and 3300MHz bands. Bharti Airtel is deploying its 5G non-standalone (NSA) network using the 1800MHz and 3300MHz bands. Other market players like Vodafone Idea (Vi) and BSNL are expected to join the race in rolling out 5G by 2023 and early 2024 respectively.”

He also cites some data from the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) which shows that 2,75,256 5G base transceiver stations (BTS) have been deployed across the country by early July 2023. This marks India as one of the fastest countries in the world in rolling out 5G.

Sahay points out some positive fillips that have helped India on this path; the National Digital Communication Policy (NDCP) initiation and the creation of a high-level forum establishes the government’s focus on accelerating the deployment of 5G. India has taken steps to create an enabling environment for its rollout. He also counts on the role of global partners. “They will allow the transfer of technology and knowledge, accelerating the progress of 5G infrastructure development.”

Omdia expects Vi to launch the 5G service in NSA mode as it is easier to implement and can make use of existing 4G networking hardware to reduce the cost of deployment. Gupta adds that BSNL is also going to launch 5G services by April 2024 and is in talks with the Indian IT giant TCS to procure the required equipment for testing and thereby begin the initial trial of 5G services. The government has already reserved 5G spectrum bands for BSNL and provided a USD 20.5 billion revival package to help the loss-making operator survive and compete with its private-sector rivals.

Puneet Sethi, Head – Product, Sales, and Operations, Ataya points out that for India the biggest positive is the pace of deployment. “Despite being a large market with multiple challenges, the pace of 5G roll-out in India has been significantly faster than several other countries. 5G use cases demonstrated at IMC 2022 by various operators are among the most advanced globally. We expect that 5G will continue to drive growth and productivity in India across sectors.”

Tamboli also notes other positive aspects like successful spectrum auctions, active trials by leading telecom operators, and supportive policy frameworks.

Peeyush Vaish, Partner and TMT Industry leader, Deloitte South Asia points out that India’s 5G rollout presents boundless opportunities through a dynamic landscape of emerging trends like IoT, Edge Computing, Cloud Gaming, and industry-specific use cases across various sectors. These trends illuminate the transformative power of 5G and have the potential to boost India’s economy by USD 1 trillion till 2035.

New 5G networks will have a dense, distributed-access architecture and move data processing closer to the edge and the users to enable faster data processing, Sahay reminds us. “5G architectures will be software-defined platforms, in which networking functionality is managed through software rather than hardware. In healthcare, 5G technology will enable patients to be monitored through connected devices that continuously deliver data on key health indicators. In the auto industry, 5G will provide information on traffic, accidents, and more; vehicles will be able to share information with other vehicles and entities on roadways, such as traffic lights.”

“Despite being a large market with multiple challenges, the pace of 5G roll-out in India has been significantly faster than several other countries.”- Puneet Sethi, Head – Product, Sales, & Operations, Ataya

But there are some delays and deterrents that cannot be glossed over.

Orbits to steer

Sahay rightly argues about the vast geography of India and how it can create infrastructural challenges for 5G deployment. “An increased number of base stations, fibre optic connectivity, and backhaul capabilities will take time and investment. There are operational hurdles involved in the deployment of the 5G networks, such as site acquisition, obtaining necessary clearances, and addressing regulatory concerns.”

Currently, only 36% of the mobile towers are fibreised and nearly 0.75 million towers have been deployed in India, Gupta paints the requisite brutal picture here. “According to Digital Infrastructure Providers Association (DIPA), 65% of the telecom towers need to be fibreised and 1.2 million towers need to be deployed by 2024 to make the country fully successful in 5G. Massive investment required in this stands out to be a bigger challenge for the telcos.”

Two other key issues that can make or ruin this jump to the future, are ecosystem and technical pieces.

The good news is that a large part of the 5G eco-system can leverage what has been in place for 4G, suggests Sethi. “For example, some operators in India have chosen to start with NSA architecture which leverages the 4G core network and radio network investments for 5G deployments. However, one area that requires a new approach is private networks. Private networks are largely a 5G phenomenon in most markets including India. The network requirements for 5G private networks are significantly different from mass-market 5G rollout, which requires a new set of solutions. India can take the lead in driving innovation in the area.”

“India’s 5G rollout presents boundless opportunities through a dynamic landscape of emerging trends like IoT, Edge Computing, and use cases across sectors.”- Peeyush Vaish,Partner & TMT Industry Leader, Deloitte South Asia

India is also facing many other challenges in rolling out 5G, including low tower fibreisation, inadequate FTTH connectivity, and limited fibreisation of tower locations, observes Sahay. “Only around 34% of mobile towers are connected with fibre, hindering the seamless delivery of 5G services.”

To address these issues, industry leaders are exploring new business models, such as forming separate fibre businesses and hosting FTTH providers as neutral parties. The government has taken initiatives like the BharatNet project to enhance broadband infrastructure in rural areas, led by organisations like Bharat Broadband Network Limited and RailTel, he notes.

“However, there are hurdles in obtaining Right of Way (RoW) permissions and utilising street infrastructure and electricity poles for small cell deployment. Even the 5G-ready end-user devices launched by the companies are not 5G-compliant but can only support the advanced 4G features which are similar to the 5G networks and can facilitate actual 5G technology, to a very limited extent.”

Sahay also ponders if this hefty investment by the government and the industries and finally setting up the 5G compliant infrastructure, might be in vain due to the upcoming 6G technology and the connection of Low Earth Orbit or LEO satellites which India has launched, with the broadband connectivity.

To unleash all the potential ahead, the internet must be reinvented to become secure, predictive, and sustainable, Bhaskar reminds. “It requires an architecture that is agile, secure from the ground up and helps in value creation. The two key areas that need to be focused on are digital infrastructure and talent. None of these can become pervasive without a robust digital infrastructure, including the networks and data centre.”

Not to forget, availability and the high price of 5G phones can still be a concern to limit 5G service takeup, Gupta reasons. “Hence, TRAI has been taking measures to make 5G handsets more affordable and support the digital connectivity growth.”

Another interesting challenge is that of complacency or inertia. “Consumers using 4G handsets have observed performance improvements in terms of 4G speeds as operators have deployed more spectrum resources. So, apart from the younger generation, people won’t buy a new 5G handset and switch to 5G so rapidly as they are happy with the network speeds they are getting right now.” Gupta brings in an oft-missed aspect.

THE SKY AHEAD

With all these ups and downs, the countdown has begun from 4G to 5G in a big way now. And India cannot afford to slow down or postpone this take-off. Especially with so much that is riding on how fast, and well, we crack the 5G roll-out.

To accelerate this trajectory, we would also need a heavy role from research, academia, and indigenous manufacturing.

Sahay illustrates how research and academic institutions came together to create an Indigenous 5G test bed in line with global standards. It also facilitates open access for R&D teams to explore its workability and feasibility in the Indian socio-economic paradigm, along with its sustainability in line with global standards.

“This enables Indian operators to gain a deep understanding of 5G technologies and plan their future networks effectively.” Not to forget, these research and manufacturing developments will also create 5G technologies and intellectual properties which would be transferable to other nations and industry players, as it already has gotten a one-step-ahead

start, comparatively.

As Gupta cites, while Jio and Airtel are installing the 5G network with the help of global technology vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung, India side-by-side is also developing its own 4G/5G technology stack under the Atmanirbhar (self-reliant) vision. “BSNL will be the first operator in the country to use this home-built technology making it less dependent on global equipment vendors. This will also cut down its deployment costs.”

“For India, the biggest challenge is access to high speed and national coverage. Consolidation in India has helped a lot on the network economy.”- John Strand, CEO, Strand Consult

Sethi seconds that academia and research have a very important role to play in identifying, creating and validating Private 5G-based solutions for manufacturing and other verticals. “Leading institutes across the globe have already identified this research opportunity and are moving forward in this direction.”

As to Indigenous manufacturing, that part has a dual role to play here. “One, as a customer for a 5G-based smart manufacturing solution. Second, as a key stakeholder in research by providing requirements. With such a strategy, indigenous manufacturing can leapfrog conventional manufacturing in other parts of the world in productivity by employing various smart manufacturing solutions.” Argues Sethi.

When we zoom in on the ecosystem part, looks like in building its 5G network, India is leveraging its existing 4G infrastructure, utilising shared frequencies and network equipment, as Tamboli explains. When asked whether it would be built on 4G concrete or with a new 5G gravel, Tamboli tells that while some new technologies like millimetre wave spectrum and small cells are necessary for 5G, these can be seamlessly integrated into the current 4G networks, eliminating the need for a complete rebuild.

“With the government’s allocation of spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz bands, telecom operators can efficiently upgrade their networks to support 5G services on these frequencies,” he points out.

AIR-BORNE AND UP

As per Tamboli’s assessment, the 5G ecosystem in India is experiencing significant growth and government support, with spectrum allocation in the 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz bands and the establishment of 5G test beds. Major telecom operators, including Airtel, Reliance Jio, and Vodafone Idea, are actively deploying 5G services and expanding their networks. The availability of 5G-enabled smartphones from leading manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, OnePlus, Xiaomi, and Vivo further demonstrates the country’s commitment to embracing the new technology.

Sethi cites how Private 5G use cases can demonstrate the outcome of the technology. “That includes deployment and leverage of 5G technology for smart manufacturing. For example, the automatic orchestration of robots on the factory floor. We also focus on the integration of 5G technology with pre-existing networks of Wi-Fi and wired networks on the factory shop floors.”

Collaborations also matter. The partnership between Airtel and Meta in global connectivity infrastructure and communication platform solutions, as well as their collaboration with Saudi Telecom Company to extend the 2Africa Pearls subsea cable system to India, demonstrates the commitment to embracing new technologies, Tamboli says.

65% of the telecom towers in India need to be fibreised and 1.2 million towers need to be deployed by 2024 to make the country fully successful in 5G.- Digital Infrastructure Providers Association

“Additionally, the DoT’s 5G Vertical Engagement and Partnership Programme, along with the establishment of an Inter-Ministerial Committee to foster collaborative efforts across various vertical ministries, showcases a coordinated approach to drive 5G opportunities across usage verticals. India appears to be on the right track, steadily progressing toward a strong and interconnected future.”

To take a final look at the set-up all set for the sky, in terms of infrastructure, India currently has one that facilitates 4G connectivity and spectrums that are 5G-ready. But to optimise the potential of 5G, this infrastructure needs to be enhanced and at some juncture, be replaced as well. According to DIPA, most telecom towers still need fabrication, and 1.2 million new towers need to be deployed by 2023-24, points out Sahay.

“Other requirements include RoW facilitation, access to street infrastructure, fibre deployment, and infrastructure densification. Some states have not aligned with the amended RoW rules. Despite these challenges, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are moving forward with the 5G rollout. The government plans to establish 100 labs for developing 5G applications in engineering institutions across India. This amendment in the Indian Telegraph Right of Way (Amendment) Rules, 2022 will ensure the speedy roll-out of the technology.”

Gupta observes how the government is also helping the country’s service providers in rolling out 5G. “Government has given the authority to service providers to use street furniture in building up the 5G infrastructure. Tools such as Shortest Distance, 5G planning and RoW have also been provided to the telecom service providers with detailed information to enable quick deployment of 5G BTSs and optical fibre. The Prime Minister GatiShakti National Master Plan has also been introduced for a quick 5G rollout and to help increase liberalisation in the country.”

The way forward for India’s 5G deployment involves identifying end-users, evaluating existing infrastructure, selecting rollout cities, determining investment models, and managing digital risks – stresses Sahay. He also adds that Telecom operators, tower companies, fibre providers, and regulatory bodies should work together to ensure the timely deployment of 5G networks. Government should also make mandates for telecom companies to work towards bridging the urban-rural digital divide.

The network requirements for 5G private networks are significantly different from mass-market 5G rollout, which requires a new set of solutions.

John Strand, CEO of Strand Consult highlights that initially, 5G is about building a mobile network that can produce more and better data traffic at a higher speed and lower cost. “In a country like India, the biggest challenge is access to high speed as well as national coverage. Consolidation in India has helped a lot on the network economy.” Adds Bhaskar: “As we go deeper into the 5G-connected world, it will require collaborative efforts from industry, technology players, and telecom operators to ensure scale, speed, and sustainability, ensuring longevity and a much lower carbon footprint, and a seamless and immersive experience.”

As outlined by Aditya Khaitan, Partner, Consulting, Deloitte India, to realise the gains (USD 450 billion contribution to the Indian economy by 2040) promised by 5G; telcos would need to focus on enterprise and B2B business and drive deeper cross-sector collaboration across industry regulators, industry players, academia and start-ups.

“This would drive investments in the R&D of new technologies thereby fostering innovation; enable the establishment of standards and specifications for the design and development of these technologies; enable testing and certification of new products and services; aid in the development of India-specific use-cases to demonstrate impact on the value chain across industry verticals; and drive adoption of these custom solutions relevant to India.”

As indicated, the country needs to fix these 5G nuts and bolts in time. If India can do it splendidly and swiftly, nothing can stop the country from imagining what lies beyond the Moon. As India’s 6G alliance that was launched recently shows, the country is already gearing up for the next G (with 200 patents acquired already). Done well, and with an honest gaze at what’s missing, we can, then, dream confidently of the leaps that lie ahead as ripples of 5G. We can, then, think of Mars.

By Pratima Harigunani

pratimah@cybermedia.co.in