Ericsson: 5G to carry 80% of mobile traffic by 2030

Ericsson released the June 2025 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report. The report highlights the continued momentum in 5G adoption and its transformative impact on the global telecommunications landscape. By the end of 2025, global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 2.9 billion, accounting for around one-third of all mobile subscriptions. This figure is expected to rise further to 6.3 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, global mobile network data traffic increased by 19 percent between the first quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2025. Although the rate of growth is slowing, the overall volume of data is expected to more than double by the end of 2030. By the end of 2024, 5G networks were already handling 35 percent of global mobile traffic, and this share is projected to exceed 80 percent by 2030.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to gain popularity among communications service providers (CSPs), particularly as 5G enables the introduction of speed-based tariff plans. These offerings, which resemble traditional cable or fibre broadband models, allow operators to differentiate service packages and expand monetisation opportunities beyond those seen with earlier generations of FWA.

According to the report, approximately 80 percent of global CSPs currently offer FWA services, with the most significant growth seen in 5G-enabled, speed-based plans. More than half of CSPs (51 percent) with FWA offerings now provide such speed-based options, an increase from 40 percent in June 2024. This trend has been driven primarily by high adoption in North America, alongside growing momentum in Europe and the Middle East.

FWA is expected to represent more than 35 percent of new fixed broadband connections globally, with the number of FWA connections projected to reach 350 million by 2030. In particular, 5G FWA is playing a critical role in expanding broadband access in areas where traditional wired infrastructure is not viable.

Quarterly mobile network data traffic

The report highlights that mobile network data traffic increased by 19 percent between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. Quarter-on-quarter, traffic grew by approximately 5 percent between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, total global monthly mobile network data traffic had reached 172 exabytes (EB).

This sustained growth is being driven by a combination of rising smartphone subscriptions and increasing average data usage per subscription. A key contributor to this trend is the growing consumption of video content on mobile devices. By the end of 2024, video accounted for 74 percent of all mobile data traffic.

Figure 4 illustrates the trajectory of global monthly mobile network data traffic from Q1 2018 to Q1 2025, alongside the year-on-year percentage growth over the same period.

Total global mobile data traffic, excluding that generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), is expected to grow by a factor of approximately 2.3, reaching 280 exabytes (EB) per month by 2030. When FWA is included, total mobile network data traffic is projected to increase by around 2.6 times, reaching 430 EB per month by the end of the forecast period. This represents a slight downward revision from the previous forecast published six months ago, based on updated data from key global markets.

5G’s share of mobile data traffic rose from 26 percent at the end of 2023 to 35 percent by the end of 2024. This share is forecast to climb steadily, reaching 80 percent by 2030. While mobile data traffic continues to grow globally, the year-on-year growth rate is slowing, projected to decline to 15 percent in 2030. Over the full forecast period, this results in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 percent.

Mobile data traffic growth remains highly variable, influenced by a wide range of factors that differ across years, regions, markets, and operators. These include the pace of subscriber migration to newer technologies, particularly in populous markets such as India, Latin America, South East Asia, and Africa, as well as the adoption rate of emerging device categories such as those designed for augmented reality (AR) and generative AI (GenAI) applications. Current forecasts assume that extended reality (XR) services,including AR, virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality (MR),will see initial adoption towards the latter part of the forecast period. Should adoption occur earlier or at a faster pace, actual traffic growth could significantly exceed current projections.

Additional influences on mobile data traffic include changes in the proportion of traffic generated by FWA compared to mobile smartphones. In regions with limited fixed broadband infrastructure, the increasing uptake of FWA is expected to shift more household-based traffic, especially video streaming,from smartphones to fixed wireless connections. Other contributing factors include tariff structures, the range and quality of services available, the performance of deployed networks, smartphone shipment volumes, and broader macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and interest rates, which can affect consumers' ability and willingness to pay for mobile services.

The growth in data traffic per smartphone can be attributed to several drivers: advances in device capabilities, more affordable data plans, increased time spent consuming content, the rise of high-bandwidth applications, and continuous improvements in network performance. Despite these general trends, there are notable regional differences. For instance, average monthly data usage varies significantly across and within regions, with individual countries and service providers often recording consumption figures far above or below the regional average.

It is also important to note that average monthly data growth figures at the regional level cannot be used to predict peak traffic patterns at the local level. Network evolution strategies must account for these localised variations in demand.

Mobile data traffic per active smartphone continues to increase across all major regions. For example, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan, monthly traffic per smartphone is expected to grow from 32 GB in 2024 to 62 GB by 2030. Other regions also show strong growth trajectories, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, projected to grow from 5 GB to 14 GB per month during the same period, and Latin America, where usage is forecast to increase from 13 GB to 29 GB.

Overall, 5G accounted for 35 percent of total mobile data traffic at the end of 2024, and this figure is expected to rise significantly as networks expand and advanced use cases mature.

India's 5G growth

In India, the 5G story continues to unfold at an impressive pace. By the end of 2024, the country had reached 290 million 5G subscriptions, representing 24 percent of total mobile connections. This figure is expected to grow to around 980 million by 2030, accounting for approximately 75 percent of all mobile subscriptions. India currently has the highest mobile data usage per smartphone in the world, at 32 GB per month, a figure forecast to rise to 62 GB by 2030. While 4G still accounted for 53 percent of mobile subscriptions at the end of 2024, it is expected to decline significantly to 230 million subscriptions by 2030, as more users migrate to 5G.

India's 5G growth reflects the country’s broader ambition to build a digitally inclusive and future-ready society. This rapid expansion is being driven by rising data demand, widespread mid-band spectrum availability, increasing smartphone adoption, and large-scale 5G FWA deployments. In particular, the need for reliable broadband in rural and semi-urban areas is pushing service providers to accelerate their FWA rollouts. India's mid-band spectrum allocation is well suited to deliver both capacity and coverage, ensuring a high-quality user experience.

Nitin Bansal, Managing Director of Ericsson India, expressed pride in the company's role in supporting India’s digitalisation efforts. He noted that Ericsson’s partnership with Indian service providers in building robust 4G and 5G infrastructure is enabling connectivity and driving inclusive economic growth across the country.

Regional trends in 5G rollout

The report also outlines regional trends in 5G rollout. In Europe, 5G mid-band coverage surpassed 50 percent of the population by the end of 2024, in line with the global average. However, the region still lags behind frontrunners such as North America, where 5G mid-band coverage exceeded 90 percent, and India, where it reached 95 percent. The report underscores the importance of 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced in enabling CSPs to pursue new monetisation strategies that focus on delivering value rather than simply selling data volume. Through differentiated connectivity services, CSPs are opening up new commercial opportunities for consumers, enterprises, and public sector users. Use cases include video production, point-of-sale systems, live events, gaming, FWA, VPNs, and broader enterprise productivity solutions.

Erik Ekudden, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Ericsson, commented that the industry is at an inflection point, with 5G and its surrounding ecosystem poised to unleash a wave of innovation. He highlighted that recent progress in 5G Standalone networks and the development of compatible devices have created a foundation for unlocking transformative opportunities in connected creativity. Ekudden noted that service providers have begun to monetise 5G through innovative service offerings that go beyond traditional data plans, and stressed the need for continued deployment of 5G SA and mid-band spectrum to drive further business growth.