Wireless Broadband 4G: 100Mbps in your palm

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is not even up and running yet, and they have already started talking about 4G?

It is but natural. As with all technology progressions, the next upgrades have

to be in planning and development. It is now time to think about the future of

mobile called 4G i.e. the 4th Generation Wireless.

The cellular industry began developing 2G systems in the

early 1980s. As experience shows, the lead-time for mobile phone systems

development is about 10 years. Primary thinking on 3G took place in 1991 as 2G (GSM)

systems just started to roll out. Therefore, it is felt that 4G should be

operational from around 2011, and would build on the second phase of 3G when all

networks are expected to embrace Internet protocol (IP) technology. During the

last year, companies such as Ericsson, Motorola, Lucent, Nortel and Qualcomm

came up with "3G-plus" concepts that would push performance of

approved, though still emerging, standards beyond current ones.

3G networks–the first of which will be operational in 2001–will

offer Internet speeds of up to 2 Mbps, 200 times faster than is possible today,

making it possible to see live video clips. 4G speeds could be as high as 100

Mbps. Thus, 4G will represent another quantum leap in mobile Internet speeds and

picture quality. Ericsson confirms that 4G could bring connection speeds of up

to 50 times faster than 3G networks and three-dimensional visual experiences for

the first time. "You will be able to have the experience of sitting in the

stadium at the Olympics and really feeling you are there", according to

Ericsson.

4G could be built on 3G-telephony spectrum, but higher

capacity demand would create a need for even more spectrum. Operators–already

investing huge amounts in buying 3G licences–would have to make additional

investments in equipment and services.

Japan Aims to be the First

The Japanese Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications has

announced that it is setting up a panel of experts to develop standards for 4G

cellular technologies aiming to launch 4G services targeted at around 2007.

Japan is planning to invest $10 billion in 4G development.

Japan can claim to be the first with wireless broadband as

NTT DoCoMo–a pioneer in wireless Internet services–has announced that

wireless broadband would be available to its consumers in the next ten months.

In February 1999, the company introduced the ‘i-Mode’, giving wireless

Internet access to now 15 million subscribers (V&D, July 2000). NTT DoCoMo

is planning to introduce 3G wireless services in Japan by May 2001, which may be

the first mobile broadband service in the world available to consumers.

NTT DoCoMo has been lobbying to get its W-CDMA broadband

technology accepted as a worldwide standard. With the Japanese marketplace being

relatively isolated from the rest of the world, Japan is the only major country

using PDC technology standard for 2G mobile phones. DoCoMo calls its vision 2010

as MAGIC (Mobile multimedia, Anytime-anywhere-anyone, Global, Integerated,

Customis-ed personal service).

With all the 3G frenzy, the 3G systems are on the threshold.

The 3G licences are being auctioned off at astronomical prices and new mobile

services are being created at a rapid pace. People in the 3G world would receive

the latest information—anywhere, anytime, and make use of it on a real time

basis. 4G will add ‘Multimedia’!

4G Terminals: Virtual Reality

4G

terminals are predicted to be more of a "virtual reality device" that

will recognize the owner’s geographical position, needs and habits. Therefore,

it will be quite different from the terminal device that we are familiar with

today, where one has to submit URLs, scroll, click and command. 4G will be less

dependent on menus and scrolling. The thing we do hope gets addressed is the

cost, considering the incredibly high 3G costs.

Major 4G applications would be based on visualized virtual

navigation that allows a remote database containing graphical representation of

streets, buildings and physical characteristics of a large metro to be accessed

by a moving vehicle, which can then visualize the environment ahead virtually.

One would be able to see the internal layout of a building during an emergency

rescue. "Telegeoprocessing"–through a combination of Geographical

Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and high-capacity

wireless mobile systems–dependent on location information of several users,

can have many applications including crisis management.

The other life-saving application would be

"telemedicine" where a paramedic assisting the victim of a traffic

accident in remote locations can access medical records and have

video-conference assistance from



a surgeon for an emergency intervention.

Wireless Data Users: Growth Continues

Ericsson predicts that the number of mobile subscribers

globally will jump from 600 million to 1 billion in the next two years, and that

in 2003, mobile Internet users will overtake fixed-line users for the first

time. The number of subscribers to wireless data services will grow rapidly from

170 million worldwide in 2000 to more than 1.3 billion in 2004, according to a

study by Cahners In-Stat Group.

Messaging will be the primary driver of wireless data

adoption, according to the Cahners study. The number of wireless messages sent

per month will rise rapidly from 3 billion in December 1999 to 244 billion by

December 2004. Other features such as mobile commerce applications,

entertainment, real-time financial information, travel and location-based

information services–getting directions to the closest restaurant or bank–will

also be popular, but will take longer to reach the market, according to the

study. It adds, "to ensure that wireless data catches on, carriers must

deploy new infrastructure and install new equipment to enable location-based

services, high-level security, micro-payment options and detailed billing".

Other killer applications have been mentioned as "location-based

services" and "streaming video and audio services".

Development Efforts

At ITU Telecom Asia 2000 (December 4-9, Hong Kong), 4G was

expect-edly one of the hot topics. Ericsson confirmed that it is expected to

contribute $12 million to the California Institute of Telecommunications

Information and Technology to conduct studies of wireless communication in the

fourth generation of wireless technology.

In India, Karnataka has shown initiative by setting up a 4G-resource centre

at Bangalore. With a large number of Indians already involved in mobile Internet

development, the initiative–with a lot of foresight–needs all possible

support.

Niraj K Gupta www.telecombyNirajGupta.com