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As the next millennium
approaches with a promise of boundless communication capabilities, applications that were
laboratory dreams just a decade ago continuously become realities and then routine. The
evolution within telecom will not only provide the much discussed "information super
highway", but will, in fact, be a collective of "universal capabilities".
In this backdrop, Voice & Data
spoke to Ralph W Wyndrum Jr, technology vice-president, AT&T Laboratories,
about telecommunications technology in the 21st century. Excerpts ...
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What is your vision about
the future of telecommunications?
My vision about the future of
telecommunications shows a collective of universal capabilities made possible by limitless
digital networks with ubiquitous access and functionality. Mobile communications,
Internet, video, telephony, and a broad array of end-user services will be the major
drivers moving network providers to fuse capability with transparency. Integration of the
full spectrum of communication possibilities will be the trend of the 21st century.
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The future of telecommunications will be
determined not by any of us, but by the customer demand. Profound customer focus will
enable companies to make better decisions as to what services and products are offered
over the network. Losers in the telecommunications market will be easy to spot. They will
offer services and products with lengthy manuals, user interfaces filled with confusing
icons, and counter-intuitive modes of operation. In short, they will expect users to adapt
to their products.
Winners in the telecom market will be
companies that provide customers with a service that is easy-to-use, realistically priced,
and trouble free. Customers want to view technology as an ally that helps them have better
lives and do their jobs better.
You have mentioned
Internet/intranet, broadband, wireless, satellite, network services telephony,
speech/image processing, electronic commerce technology as the "seven killer
technologies". What is the premise on which you have arrived at these technologies?
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Well, that is interesting. At the AT&T
laboratories, we have an organization which deals with the future. It is a futuristic
organization. Here, we, first, try to anticipate what services would be needed by our
clients in the next five to 10 years. With the feedback, we try to postulate new services
which we think our customers can use.
We also make attempts to understand what
the major telecom marketing houses are saying as to what would be needed by our key
customers. We, basically, break down the market segment into different key sub-segments to
understand. From each of these, we get representative samples. Then, we try to test our
ideas/concepts. Taking the ideas, we make prototype models. With marketing inputs and
futurist inputs, we also have inputs from our research people. With their educational
background in telecom, computers, psychology, and market research, research people provide
inputs based on the research. There are around 300 research people in the AT&T
laboratories. And, our market research is done around the world.
Our research says India would be an
important market for AT&T. From what we understand, the rapidly growing telecom market
is Asia-Pacific. The player out here has to be a serious player.
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How do you relate these to
the evolution of telecom?
I am not sure in looking back. It is
always helpful in looking ahead. For example, to reach a market of one million people,
facsimile took 8-10 years. For the telephone to reach one million people, it took quite a
number of years. For the Internet browser to reach a million of people, it took 11 months.
I mean, it just gives you the feeling of the accelerated rate of these killer technologies
being absolved.
Telecommmunication will evolve a lot more
rapidly and be more competitive. And, monopoly holds no rationale for speeding the telecom
market. Today, the economic and political environments are so different that there is no
link between them. Now, drivers are different. Environments are also different. And, users
are much more skilled.
Are you saying that the
21st century will be dominated by technological innovations in telecommunications as
opposed to computing?
I address telecom because I am from the
telecom business. Computers are absolutely crucial and telecom links computers. We should
have access to computers, we have to be able to make use of databases. I did not put
computers as one of the seven killer technologies because I was looking for
telecom-specific technologies. And, of course, Internet is a mix of computer and telecom.
Our customers are looking for voice over Internet, looking at speech, algorithms, looking
at fax over Internet.
Basic cost of making a
telecom call costs 10-15 cents per minute in the US. But, there are political costs and
taxes which we pay in addition to the basic cost. Why so?
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Well, this is because some of the
settlement costs are there between the countries. Contrary to this, politically, Internet
is not taxed. Therefore, there is no settlement cost. Users can leverage that. Business
could be conducted on Internet. Internet is very easy to use. This is a quick technology.
It is easier than typing.
You have arrived at these
from a "developed world" perspective. To what extent would this be applicable to
countries which labour under poor telecom infrastructure?
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In some cases, I will invite you to take a
view that the developing countries have advantages over the developed countries. For
instance, developing countries have no legacy of wires between the cities. So, these
countries are in a better shape for Internet. Because, Internet is a very robust and key
technology which is capable of dealing with the sub-standard technologies and getting it
through.
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The other thing is that developing
countries do not have adequate line facility. Here, wireless technology is suitable.
Wireless will be available at a relatively low cost, and if you look at the basic cost of
wireless, I think, the prediction is that it will go down to 10 cents per minute by the
year 2003.
Satellite technology has particular
significance for developing countries. By 2005, geo-synchronous satellites and fleets of
low-orbit satellites will bring communication access to every place on earth. Initially,
they will market their services to areas inaccessible by land lines. As they gain
subscribers, they will begin supplementing terrestrial services by helping large operators
provide global roaming for business travellers and roaming within selected regions for
others.
Given the telecom reforms
currently unfolding in India, what are the chances of us leapfrogging into the 21st
century in terms of technological advancements?
India will move into wireless more
rapidly. Its cumulative growth is going to accumulate much more rapidly. And, therefore,
costs are going to drop very sharply.
India’s chances of leapfrogging to
the 21st century are pretty good. India is a world market in the use of satellite. It is
already using satellite technology in several forms, a trend likely to expand dramatically
in the coming decades. The ministry of communications’ goal of universal telephone
service to all areas, regardless of how remote, is today being met by village public
telephone service. With the ongoing liberalization, Internet is going to be a major
service in India.
Now to go back to your
killer technologies, how do you think these will impact our lives—as individuals,
government, corporations, and social institutions?
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Well, I think, it will provide very easy
access to information. You will be able to interface with different parts of the
government without travelling or visiting. For example, to get a passport, you can send
the information by Internet. Right now, I use Internet at home for banking, for personal
research work. At AT&T, we have put our training course Java on Internet which enables
aspirants to do the course staying at home. All these things make our life easier, may be
a bit complicated. It, certainly, eliminates a lot of travelling.
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