Advertisment

'The Future Of Telecommunications Will Be Determined By Customer Demand' - Wyndrum Jr, technology vice-president AT&T Laboratories

author-image
VoicenData Bureau
New Update

https://img-cdn.thepublive.com/filters:format(webp)/vnd/media/post_attachments/81b986b5ec9fe1bf24114706994f028da5f6784a10c0fed53fd111b3b326abb0.gif (25316 bytes) align="right">

Advertisment

As the next millennium

approaches with a promise of boundless communication capabilities, applications that were

laboratory dreams just a decade ago continuously become realities and then routine. The

evolution within telecom will not only provide the much discussed "information super

highway", but will, in fact, be a collective of "universal capabilities".

In this backdrop,
Voice & Data

spoke to Ralph W Wyndrum Jr, technology vice-president, AT&T Laboratories,

about telecommunications technology in the 21st century. Excerpts ...

 

What is your vision about

the future of telecommunications?

Advertisment

My vision about the future of

telecommunications shows a collective of universal capabilities made possible by limitless

digital networks with ubiquitous access and functionality. Mobile communications,

Internet, video, telephony, and a broad array of end-user services will be the major

drivers moving network providers to fuse capability with transparency. Integration of the

full spectrum of communication possibilities will be the trend of the 21st century.
SIZE="2">

The future of telecommunications will be

determined not by any of us, but by the customer demand. Profound customer focus will

enable companies to make better decisions as to what services and products are offered

over the network. Losers in the telecommunications market will be easy to spot. They will

offer services and products with lengthy manuals, user interfaces filled with confusing

icons, and counter-intuitive modes of operation. In short, they will expect users to adapt

to their products.

Winners in the telecom market will be

companies that provide customers with a service that is easy-to-use, realistically priced,

and trouble free. Customers want to view technology as an ally that helps them have better

lives and do their jobs better.

Advertisment

You have mentioned

Internet/intranet, broadband, wireless, satellite, network services telephony,

speech/image processing, electronic commerce technology as the "seven killer

technologies". What is the premise on which you have arrived at these technologies?
SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000">

Well, that is interesting. At the AT&T

laboratories, we have an organization which deals with the future. It is a futuristic

organization. Here, we, first, try to anticipate what services would be needed by our

clients in the next five to 10 years. With the feedback, we try to postulate new services

which we think our customers can use.

We also make attempts to understand what

the major telecom marketing houses are saying as to what would be needed by our key

customers. We, basically, break down the market segment into different key sub-segments to

understand. From each of these, we get representative samples. Then, we try to test our

ideas/concepts. Taking the ideas, we make prototype models. With marketing inputs and

futurist inputs, we also have inputs from our research people. With their educational

background in telecom, computers, psychology, and market research, research people provide

inputs based on the research. There are around 300 research people in the AT&T

laboratories. And, our market research is done around the world.

Advertisment

Our research says India would be an

important market for AT&T. From what we understand, the rapidly growing telecom market

is Asia-Pacific. The player out here has to be a serious player.
SIZE="1" COLOR="#094891">

How do you relate these to

the evolution of telecom?

I am not sure in looking back. It is

always helpful in looking ahead. For example, to reach a market of one million people,

facsimile took 8-10 years. For the telephone to reach one million people, it took quite a

number of years. For the Internet browser to reach a million of people, it took 11 months.

I mean, it just gives you the feeling of the accelerated rate of these killer technologies

being absolved.

Advertisment

Telecommmunication will evolve a lot more

rapidly and be more competitive. And, monopoly holds no rationale for speeding the telecom

market. Today, the economic and political environments are so different that there is no

link between them. Now, drivers are different. Environments are also different. And, users

are much more skilled.

Are you saying that the

21st century will be dominated by technological innovations in telecommunications as

opposed to computing?

I address telecom because I am from the

telecom business. Computers are absolutely crucial and telecom links computers. We should

have access to computers, we have to be able to make use of databases. I did not put

computers as one of the seven killer technologies because I was looking for

telecom-specific technologies. And, of course, Internet is a mix of computer and telecom.

Our customers are looking for voice over Internet, looking at speech, algorithms, looking

at fax over Internet.

Advertisment

Basic cost of making a

telecom call costs 10-15 cents per minute in the US. But, there are political costs and

taxes which we pay in addition to the basic cost. Why so?
COLOR="#000000">

Well, this is because some of the

settlement costs are there between the countries. Contrary to this, politically, Internet

is not taxed. Therefore, there is no settlement cost. Users can leverage that. Business

could be conducted on Internet. Internet is very easy to use. This is a quick technology.

It is easier than typing.

You have arrived at these

from a "developed world" perspective. To what extent would this be applicable to

countries which labour under poor telecom infrastructure?
COLOR="#000000">

Advertisment

In some cases, I will invite you to take a

view that the developing countries have advantages over the developed countries. For

instance, developing countries have no legacy of wires between the cities. So, these

countries are in a better shape for Internet. Because, Internet is a very robust and key

technology which is capable of dealing with the sub-standard technologies and getting it

through.



Our

research says India would be an important market for AT&T. From what we understand,

the rapidly growing telecom market is Asia-Pacific.

The other thing is that developing

countries do not have adequate line facility. Here, wireless technology is suitable.

Wireless will be available at a relatively low cost, and if you look at the basic cost of

wireless, I think, the prediction is that it will go down to 10 cents per minute by the

year 2003.

Satellite technology has particular

significance for developing countries. By 2005, geo-synchronous satellites and fleets of

low-orbit satellites will bring communication access to every place on earth. Initially,

they will market their services to areas inaccessible by land lines. As they gain

subscribers, they will begin supplementing terrestrial services by helping large operators

provide global roaming for business travellers and roaming within selected regions for

others.

Given the telecom reforms

currently unfolding in India, what are the chances of us leapfrogging into the 21st

century in terms of technological advancements?

India will move into wireless more

rapidly. Its cumulative growth is going to accumulate much more rapidly. And, therefore,

costs are going to drop very sharply.

India’s chances of leapfrogging to

the 21st century are pretty good. India is a world market in the use of satellite. It is

already using satellite technology in several forms, a trend likely to expand dramatically

in the coming decades. The ministry of communications’ goal of universal telephone

service to all areas, regardless of how remote, is today being met by village public

telephone service. With the ongoing liberalization, Internet is going to be a major

service in India.

Now to go back to your

killer technologies, how do you think these will impact our lives—as individuals,

government, corporations, and social institutions?
COLOR="#000000">

Well, I think, it will provide very easy

access to information. You will be able to interface with different parts of the

government without travelling or visiting. For example, to get a passport, you can send

the information by Internet. Right now, I use Internet at home for banking, for personal

research work. At AT&T, we have put our training course Java on Internet which enables

aspirants to do the course staying at home. All these things make our life easier, may be

a bit complicated. It, certainly, eliminates a lot of travelling. 
SIZE="1">

Advertisment