"Internet Will Drive Wireless Market In The Future"

alt="Dr Jan Uddenfelt, vice-president, R&D, Ericsson Radio Systems"

align="right" hspace="0" width="148" height="163">R&D is the

key to Ericsson’s success. It invests approximately 18

percent of the net sales turnover (about $3.2 billion) in R&D

and every fifth employee (more than 18,000 employees active in 23

countries) within Ericsson is working with the development tasks.

As a result of this, more than 60 percent of Ericsson’s net

sales in 1997 will have been generated by products and systems

that did not exist three years ago. Dr Jan Uddenfelt,

vice-president, R&D, Ericsson Radio Systems, was recently in

India. He is responsible for Ericsson’s world-wide R&D

for radio communications including cellular systems and cellular

phones. This R&D activity is carried out in more than 15

countries world-wide. He has been active in developing the TDMA

cellular technology for GSM standards as well as the

North-Amercian and digital cellular standards. He spoke to Satya

Prakash Singh about the emerging wireless standards and the

driving forces behind these standards.

width="13" height="13"> How do you see the global wireless scene

in the year 2000?

We believe that if you look at cellular, there

will be a very large portion of the public using it. By the year

2001, 6,000 million subscribers will be there in the world. Out

of which, GSM will constitute more than 300 million. At the same

time, we also see that Internet will have a very large number of

users. And, we believe that very many people will start to use a

combination of wireless and Internet.

If we look at the evolution of cellular, the

first generation was analog—like AMPS, TACS, and

NMT—which started in the early Eighties. Then came the

second generation in 1990s which brought in digital standards

like GSM, DCS 1800, PCS, PDS, and digital AMPS. Now, we believe,

in the year 2001, there will be a third generation standard which

will be optimized for high-speed data. We will have a lot of data

communication in the cellular. And, that will happen primarily

for Internet. In this context, there is a very important

evolution taking place, called IMT-2000.

width="13" height="13"> ITU has already recommended IMT-2000. Do

you think D-AMPS and GSM systems will be able to smoothly migrate

to IMT-2000 at the same time protecting operators’

investment?

In Europe, this will start in the year 2002.

Frequency band has already been allocated here. Smooth migration,

yes, that is the whole idea. It is based on the same GSM network

with high-speed data access add-on. We still have GSM for both.

That means an operator camera can run both IMT-2000 and GSM on

the same switch co-network. Operators can use both at the same

time.

width="13" height="13"> How far is IMT-2000 from where Ericsson

is today? Especially when CDMA Development Group has also

announced its support for IMT-2000 ...

We have been developing experimental systems

through a number of operators in Europe and Asia. We will start

commercial system in the year 2001 and pre-commercial one year

before.

width="13" height="13"> Why did Ericsson skip IS-95 CDMA? Even

after other manufacturers including Alcatel and Siemens took

licence?

Ericsson has the highest marketshare in the US.

In the mobile cellular system, we have 30 percent of marketshare

in the US. We do not say that there is no room for IS-95 as a new

standard. The problem with IS-95 is that it is voice only. We do

not see any capacity improvement with IS-95. Another important

fact is that D-AMPS has been up in running since 1992-93. Our

biggest operator in the US, AT&T, wants to have it. So, we do

not see any scope for IS-95. Rather, we have started research on

wide band CDMA. That is a better idea. CDMA is a good technology

and could stay for a long time. CDMA is a good technology if you

match the power control. Qualcomm says it will happen in 1999. We

know, this would take at least six to seven years. This

technology could mature over a period of time. Now, CDMA has come

to a level where it can be experimented and trialed.

width="13" height="13"> Your W-CDMA promises sound great.

Particularly in terms of its service offerings. But, what about

hard realities like cost?

Cost, we believe, is very important. Cost is

surely quite attractive. Because, for high-speed data, one cannot

have too many base stations. Many users can share one radio

channel. From the cost point of view, W-CDMA is quite attractive

than narrow-band CDMA. But, the problem with high-speed data

communication is that, if you are not careful, you need to have a

large number of base stations than for voice communication.

width="13" height="13"> Ericsson has been promoting D-AMPS a lot.

Essentially in India for WILL applications. Don’t you think

the use of CDMA and GSM by two leading mobile satellite systems

will negatively affect D-AMPS?

I think, D-AMPS in the US is clearly a

dominating digital standard. The US has 10 million subscribers

now on the D-AMP network. This is also gradually being preferred

in the Latin American countries. In Asia, this is difficult

because here, GSM has been very successful. A few Asian countries

have D-AMPS and have been widely used for WILL applications.

Inmarsat, ICO, and Geo stationary regional satellites use CDMA. I

think, that will not have adverse impact on CDMA as a cellular

standard, because the volumes in satellites are very high.

width="13" height="13"> What role will India play in R&D in

the next century? What are the advantages and disadvantages that

it has vis-a-vis other countries in the region to be a global

R&D base?

In India, we see a good opportunity now. We

started GSM here. Now, with IMT-2000 coming, we would work in

that area also. But the critical issue is how will frequency be

allocated in India for IMT-2000.

Major advantages in India are technical

know-how, lots of skilled people, modern software engineering,

and their English-speaking background. In many regions, one

cannot find experienced and skilled people. They may not be able

to take on the industrial responsibility. If you compare it with

China, you will get much better people here.

As far as disadvantages are concerned, lack of

infrastructure is a major concern.

width="13" height="13"> What are your expectations from the

Bangalore-based Software Design Centre?

We expect it to grow to over 260 people by the

year 2000 from the present strength of 25 software engineers. The

design centre here is expected to serve as a source of trained

software specialists for Ericsson’s other Software

Development Centres in the world.