With the coming of a new year, there come new resolutions and
expectations, the tech industry not being an exception. The wireless world came
across a whole lot of unexpected events in the past year, from the birth of the
iPhone to Google's Android wireless operating standard, the spectrum war to
Verizon Wireless' move to open its network. This year does not look any less
eventful. The telecom industry is mulling over technology trends that popped up
in late 2007, and are set to leave a mark for the next couple of years. Here is
a sneak peak at some of the trends 2008 has in store.
Beyond Voice: Pulling up ARPUs
Globally, mobile operators have been a witness to declining ARPUs in the
past couple of years, a trend that is now shifting its focus from developed to
developing countries. This means that there will be a renewed impetus to think
beyond voice-based revenue. They are left with no other option but to push data
services in these markets, regain lost revenues, and get the most out of the
existing networks.
Research firm Gartner is of the opinion that there is serious
pressure on margins for operators in voice services, and it keeps getting worse.
There are other issues like limiting roaming charges, adding to the pressure. So
the life of a mobile operator is certainly not going to be as rosy as it has
been for many years. To increase their revenue, this year might see increased
outsourcing activity and more operators opting for network sharing.
FMC and Dual Mode: The New Avatar
It is believed that 2008 will see a massive influx of Wi-Fi-enabled
mobile handsets. Some manufacturers like BlackBerry and Nokia already have mass
productions of Wi-Fi-enabled and dual-mode handsets-sure to be the next 'in'
thing in the handset market. Once they are mainstream, it will further push
fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) to the forefront. FMC is essentially going to be
the next avatar of mobile communications, tying together voice, unified
communications, and wired and wireless networks in a seamless way to access
information from anywhere, any time.
Ben Gibson, Cisco's director of mobility solutions, says,
"Dual-mode as a device model and the ability to extend connectivity from
any device both on and off campus is going to be a huge push in 2008." He
also adds, "While FMC and dual mode devices might not reach mainstream
status, its place in wireless will be cemented next year."
Open Network: Bonding Together
In November 2007, Verizon Wireless literally dropped a bomb when it said
it would open its wireless network to outside devices and applications by
sometime next year. And that became the biggest wireless story of 2007, the
story of openness. This means offering any device open access to any network
with the switch of a SIM card. After Verizon, it was AT&T's turn to claim
that its network is and has been wide open.
Open access or devices from one manufacturer accessing other
carriers' networks is expected to shake up the wireless industry. With a move
to IP-based networks and open access, there will be an opportunity for carriers
to be based on quality of service. On the low-end, consumers will be able to
bring their own devices to a carrier's network without receiving subsidies, or
the kind of support they currently expect by subscribing to a carrier's
services. On the high end, consumers can get high reliability, priority access,
and quality of service guarantees on applications like VoIP. Customers would
self-select the service based on their preferences, including performance and
price.
802.11n Standard: Changing the Rules
It is regarded as one of the best achievements in the wireless world in
2007. Still on the drafting table, 802.11n, the latest wireless LAN standard,
will gain more traction come next year. Though it is anticipated that it won't
be ratified until probably 2009, it hasn't stopped vendors like Cisco, Meru
and others from shipping 11n enabled products. 11n separates itself from its
counterparts by offering faster throughput-between 100-200 Mbps, and in some
configurations up to 600 Mbps-and broader range. Experts have said that 11n is
going to change the rules of the Wi-Fi game.
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With Fem-to-cells, carriers will be able to provide better coverage for their enterprise customers in their own buildings, instead of blanketing the whole city with coverage, which bring in a lot of profit |
Analysts say that soon there will be notebooks and laptops
compatible with 11n in place of 11g, and most enterprises looking to upgrade
their WLAN next year will deploy 11n. Cisco's Gibson says, "2008 is going
to be an interesting year for 11n. What you get with 11n is greater reliability
and scale of connectivity." He is also of the opinion that 'it could
revolutionize how people think of wireless.'
Fem-to-cells: The New Attraction
Issues like network congestion and spectrum crunch would haunt consumers
as well as service providers in the near future. Visualizing situations like
this, Fem-to-cells might come as a real savior. In the coming years, providing
wireless coverage inside buildings will become a large part of a service
provider's strategy, especially to serve enterprise customers. With
Fem-to-cells, carriers will be able to provide better coverage for their
enterprise customers in their own buildings, instead of blanketing the whole
city with coverage, which bring in a lot of profit. Notwithstanding technical
issues, low-cost, low-power Fem-to-cells will be a key technology used by
carriers.
Fem-to-cells are wireless home base stations designed for use in
homes and offices to help spread cellular coverage inside buildings. According
to ABI Research, they will attract more than 10 crore users in the next five
years, globally. Many operators have already started trials. It would help
operators in saving huge amounts of money from having to upgrade to wired
connections for homes and buildings getting low signal coverage. Also, this will
help operators push rich media services onto mobile users. Ajay Gupta, VP,
Wireless and Convergence, Aricent India, says, "It has a great potential
for a country like India, where operators are facing the daunting task of
providing cellular coverage in rural and remote areas."
However, Gartner puts a warning note on these speculations by
saying, "Finding a viable mass market business model may never happen, and
Fem-to-cells could end up being a 'loss leader'-something operators have
to offer customers but can't expect to make money from, much like VoIP."
Mobile 2.0: All in your Hand
The ways in which mobile handsets are evolving, consumers can be sure to
see more interesting things in store. The launch of iPhone created more
curiosity than perhaps the first computer because with this device, the user
found everything that he can expect from a hand-held device-all available rich
multimedia services. With more smart phones coming to the market, we could see a
much greater adoption of video-based services in 2008. In some South Asian
countries, mobile broadcast TV services would be a reality and in some others,
it will be true of streamed services, predicts Gartner. In video services, user
generated video content- content uploaded into a mobile space so that can be
used by other users-will be the next craze among users.
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Android, the mobile operating system from the search engine giant Google, is expected to change the rules of the game and monopoly in the mobile operating system market might come to an end |
The other usages could be social networking and location-based
services, and one would expect to see these features integrated with the
operator's services.
Google Android & iPhone: The 'G' Factor
Android, and not an asteroid, would hit Earth in 2008. Android, the
mobile operating system from the search engine giant Google, is expected to
change the rules of the game and monopoly in the mobile operating system market
might come to an end. HTC, the Taiwanese phone maker, expects to launch the
first Android-based mobile phone in mid-2008. With this, other phone makers are
expected to follow suit. Yahoo! is the latest contender to join the bandwagon of
the mobile world. And with the likes of Google already offering in this space
and sniffing around spectrum in the US, the status quo is looking increasingly
shifty.
Another new player in the mobile world, clearly shaking things,
is Apple with its iPhone. However, it is not just about newcomers elbowing their
way in to the market, but existing telecom players like Nokia starting to
reinventing themselves. It is expected that Nokia will become a major mobile
software player in the coming years. It has plans to make software and services
one of the main business groups. The upcoming launch of Ovi Web portal by Nokia,
it is said, will change the face of mobile software and services. So, expect the
Finnish phone maker to become much more than a hardware player in 2008. The
company's buying streak is likely to continue. Recently, it acquired startups
like photo-sharing service Twango and digital map maker Navteq.
Mobile Advertising: Ads on the Go
Mobile advertising and marketing will drive content and innovation, the
fillers for falling ARPU. Carriers are all set to change their mindset from
subscription-based business models to advertising-based models. Innovative
services like intelligent search, location-based search, and other such services
will generate sizeable advertising revenues for carriers. Mobile advertising and
marketing websites such as Mginger and sms2india are emerging fast on the
Internet. These websites specifically pay users to receive SMSes on their mobile
phones after taking their permission. Somehow, these websites are still
struggling to convince advertisers of the potential they hold to make
substantial revenues.
India and China are rated as the most attractive destinations in
terms of mobile marketing solutions, according to the third annual 'Apac
Mobile Attitude and Usage Study' by the Mobile Marketing Association. Around
50% of the Apac mobile users were found to be moderately interested in mobile
marketing solutions.
The value of mobile advertising was Rs 1,661.3 crore ($421 mn)
in the US in 2006. According to the market research firm eMarketer, that number
is expected to reach nearly Rs 19,730 crore ($5 bn) by 2011 in the US alone,
whereas the global mobile advertising sales will reach Rs 44,590 crore ($11.3 bn)
by 2011.
Gyana Ranjan Swain
gyanas@cybermedia.co.in