T&M market had a sluggish growth of 16.3 percent in
2000-01, reaching Rs 370 crore of total sales. This figure includes total
communication T&M products sales, which last year was Rs 318 crore. The
service provider segment last year accounted for Rs 250 crore.
Hot Areas for 2001-02 |
DWDM |
GPRS |
SDH |
DSL/Broadband |
Fiber Testing |
Major T&M Companies |
Acterna |
Agilent |
AIMIL |
Anritsu (Meera) |
Aplab |
Blue Star |
Fastech |
Forbes Gokak |
Hinditron |
National Instruments |
Rohde & Schwarz |
Scientific Mesteknic |
Tenet |
Fluke |
This happened despite a strong growth in the telecom
infrastructure equipment, which usually drives the growth of T&M
equipment. This anomaly can be explained with the help of two possible
reasons. First, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) did not buy much of T&M
equipment. Second, the private operators just got more of the old stuff.
That means little new technology was deployed. So while new base stations or
microwave radios are good businesses for equipment and turnkey vendors, not
many service providers require new kind of test equipment along with these
deployments.
Specialized test sets for GPRS, which many vendors pinned
their hopes on, did not sell, as cellular service providers did not deploy
GPRS the way they were expected to. Similarly, with a limited number of
IS-95 systems working, IS-95 CDMA test sets also did not sell much. This,
however, is likely to change, as BSNL is likely to buy in large numbers this
year, though any tender is not yet out.
A growth in OTDR sales somewhat compensated for a sharp
drop in sales of specialized test sets. However, even the projected sales
did not happen as not many companies actually started drawing fiber after
laying the duct. But large duct deployment means that in the next couple of
years, a lot of fiber will be drawn. Assuming that even 30-40 percent of
them will be lighted, it will be a big business for OTDRs as well as optical
network test systems. Also, many companies will go for DWDM, which could
spur the growth of DWDM test systems.
For the third consecutive year, the US sanctions affected
the sale of test equipment to many organizations in India, affecting
companies like Agilent and Tektronix in a major way. With indications of the
ban being lifted, this segment (defense, defense PSUSs, etc) could bring the
smile back to the T&M vendors.
With new fixed service networks being rolled out and the
fourth cellular operators likely to start their operations, there will be
significant sales in the telecom equipment. However, that will mean only
some incremental sale for T&M vendors. Unless the service providers go
for technologies like GPRS, VoIP, and start providing VPN solutions
aggressively, T&M vendors will not have "their" boom time.
The growth of general instruments will be stable.
Overall, the year 2001-02 may be a good year for T&M.
The first quarter shows some promise. Tektronix registered more than 200
percent growth in AMJ 2001. However, if new technologies do not come in, the
incremental sales of the vanilla equipment will not be able to produce more
than 12-15 percent growth.
With more competition coming in, the service providers
will focus on QoS. That will mean network certification and some degree of
outsourcing of T&M work. From 2002-03, services will form a significant
percentage of the T&M vendors’ revenue.
One new segment that will contribute towards significant
T&M sales in 2000-01, will be the new technology companies.
In service provider segment, only the long distance
service provider will go for big T&M equipment purchase. BSNL may revive
the purchase, especially CDMA test sales in the wake of large CDMA
deployment in Wireless in Local Loop. Fixed service providers and cellular
service providers are not likely to buy in large quantities, despite network
expansion.
Indian utilities who have rolling-out ambitious networks will be a new
segment for T&M.