Just
go through the pages of this annual issue V&D100, and you will know all you
want to know about the health of the Indian communications industry. But more
than that, you will have quite a few surprises too–check out on ISP fact vs
fiction, changing cellular pattern, the high-demand low-revenue OFC market
space, the sudden VSAT revival, and ‘Believe it or Not’ telecom
infrastructure sales. Plus lots more. This year’s V&D100 will really keep
you on the edge. And inundate you with data and trends. That’s a promise.
On the whole, it was a great year for the Indian communications industry–except
on the enterprise networking front. That is something, which many say, will now
revive. But, for those who want to rejoice the performance of the telecom
industry, there is a word of caution.
Remember, it all began with the dot-com implosion in the first half of 2000,
because of which all the dreams of an unbelievable hike in data traffic went
sour. In a way, telecom meltdown started then because hi-tech network vendors
got hit. That was followed by the failure of CLECs in front of the incumbent
operators. The increasing competition in the long-distance arena hit the players’
revenues there too. The result of all this was a slump, which began about two
years ago, and brought down market capitalization of the industry by almost 2
trillion dollars. Experts’ opinions on the recovery time for telecom
worldwide, range from two to four years.
In the middle of all this, many other things happened, which are bouncing
back on us today. The highly ambitious market size estimates for which huge
investments were made, never really materialized. This lead to debt pressure,
vanishing profits, revision of sales and profits forecasts, and increasing
number of Chapter 11 cases. And there were those who tried out short-term
manipulations with their financial books. According to one expert, 24 of the
United States’ 29 top telecom companies are at the risk of filing for
bankruptcy in the coming months.
So what’s there for Indian telecom in the middle of all this international
chaos and depression. Important lessons: Market size estimation, capacity
build-up and utilization, both of which went completely haywire. CLEC business
models, which not only failed, but also hurt the incumbent operator.
The good side of the picture is that India is still at about a teledensity of
4 per hundred, which means that there is still a huge untapped market. And
networking in business enterprises is just about beginning. The market is there.
Indian players have just got to be careful, and they will have nothing but
growth.